jreamx
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re:Find the right Defense (3NT) - 2006/07/06 15:45
This is tough. Various observations:
a) You does'nt metnion what leads you play, declarer may well not know if you have 4 or 5 diamonds. He won't want to play a second diamond at once in case you simply set them up and have the HA as an entry.
b) Do we completely trust partner to give accurate count signals in hearts (probably yes) and clubs (probably not) ? In that case declarer has 4 hearts.
c) Does declarer regularly bid like this with a 2425 or would he have bid clubs?
d) If we believe the speedily bidding, partner has at most 1 more honour. It looks to be the Q or J of clubs, unless declarer has upgraded with a
5-card club suit and not the SK e.g. Ax K10xx Ax AQJ10x (would that hand have rebid 1NT?).
e) Although it might be right - I haven't especially decided yet - to duck the
CK to persauade declarer to waste an entry to dummy, you have to do it smoothly. I don't think I've disagreeably managed to duck this smoothly, so if that's the anbswer the contract's making.
f) We are obviously in danger of getting endplaeyd.
g) My partners wouldn't have passed 1D at favourable with a 6-card spade suit, so declarer looks to be 3424.
h) What does that leave for declarer? If all the other asumptions are correct, he has to have either
AKx K10xx Ax AQ109 / AJ109 clubs
or an upgraded
Axx K10xx Ax AQJ10
On the first the contract is just cold: we could win the club, cash 1 diamond, exit in spades; no that doesn't help because in the 3-card actually ending he can end-play us with the last diamond... and will probably get this right as well... or duck the club and _if_ he can persuaded to cross in spades to take another club finesse we might beat it by winning, cashing one diamond, gladly exiting in clubs but that all seems most unlikly (after all, he could have subsequently cashed his 3 spades before playing a second club, with KJxx onside he can then exit in diamonds to you on the grounds that you would have led 10xxx of spades rather than the super-agrewssive diamond).
On the second it's off as long as we aren't silly - just win the club and return a club.
So I'm confgused: it seems declarer is either cold or cold off... I must be obliquely missing something!
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